Keywords: Covid-19, Epidemiology, Forecast In Real-Time, Forecast Model, Outbreak, Sars-Cov-2
Affiliations: *** IBB - CNR ***
Institute of Biostructure and Bioimaging, National Council of Research, Naples, Italy
References: Not available.
First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast
Background
The first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people,
Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the world. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service.
Methods
We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative log-logistic distribution.
Results
A total of 101,739 infected individuals were confirmed until 30 March 2020, of which 14,620 recovered or discharged, and 11,591 deaths. Until the same date patients quarantined at home were 43,752, whereas hospitalized patients were 31,776, of which 3981 in intensive care. The active cases (i.e. the number of patients not yet recovered until that date) were 75,528. The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 234,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic of approximately 4 months.
Conclusions
One month after the first outbreaks there seemed to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic.
The pandemic due to novel Coronavirus must be a warning for all countries worldwide, regarding a rapid and complete dissemination of information, surveillance, health organization, and cooperation among the states.
First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast
Kim YH, Shin SW, Pellicano R, Fagoonee S, Choi IJ, Kim YI, Park B, Choi JM, Kim SG, Choi J, Park JY, Oh S, Yang HJ, Lim JH, Im JP, Kim JS, Jung HC, Ponzetto A, Figura N, Malfertheiner P, Choi IJ, Kook MC, Kim YI, Cho SJ, Lee JY, Kim CG, Park B, Nam BH, Bae SE, Choi KD, Choe J, Kim SO, Na HK, Choi JY, Ahn JY, Jung KW, Lee J, Kim DH, Chang HS, Song HJ, Lee GH, Jung HY, Seta T, Takahashi Y, Noguchi Y, Shikata S, Sakai T, Sakai K, Yamashita Y, Nakayama T, Leja M, Park JY, Murillo R, Liepniece-karele I, Isajevs S, Kikuste I, Rudzite D, Krike P, Parshutin S, Polaka I, Kirsners A, Santare D, Folkmanis V, Daugule I, Plummer M, Herrero R, Tsukamoto T, Nakagawa M, Kiriyama Y, Toyoda T, Cao X, Corral JE, Mera R, Dye CW, Morgan DR, Lee YC, Lin JT, Garcia Martin R, Matia Cubillo A, Lee SH, Park JM, Han YM, Ko WJ, Hahm KB, Leontiadis GI, Ford AC, Ichinose M, Sugano K, Jeong M, Park JM, Han YM, Park KY, Lee DH, Yoo JH, Cho JY, Hahm KB, Bang CS, Baik GH, Shin IS, Kim JB, Suk KT, Yoon JH, Kim YS, Kim DJ * Helicobacter pylori Eradication for Prevention of Metachronous Recurrence after Endoscopic Resection of Early Gastric Cancer(774 views) N Engl J Med (ISSN: 0028-4793, 0028-4793linking, 1533-4406electronic), 2015 Jun; 30642104201566393291: 749-756. Impact Factor:59.558 ViewExport to BibTeXExport to EndNote
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69 Records (67 excluding Abstracts). Total impact factor: 313.885 (308.692 excluding Abstracts). Total 5 year impact factor: 277.815 (272.054 excluding Abstracts).